The 2024 Outlook by LandVest: Part 2

January 2024 Buyer & Seller Activity Survey: Optimism Defines the First Expert Survey of 2024

 

Every month LandVest conducts a survey of our 70+ brokers, agents, appraisers, and consultants asking them to compare current buyer and seller activity with one month ago and one year ago and provide a six-to-twelve-month outlook. This survey provides perspectives based on the quantity and tenor of discussions with high-net-worth buyers and sellers of land and luxury homes across New England. The January survey illustrates changes in market dynamics with a few key trends emerging.

1. Year-over-year, brokers are far more optimistic about Buyers and Sellers than one year ago.

• 34% of our brokers reported that seller activity has improved versus 9% reporting improvement in January 2023.
• The negative sentiment responses have dropped from 82% for Sellers and 73% for Buyers in January 2023 to 39% for Sellers and 42% for Buyers in January 2024.
• While January 2024 may not be a robust market like late 2020 to early 2022, it is a more balanced market.

2. Month-over-month, the change in sentiment is more significant.

• 45% of our brokers reported that seller activity has improved since December 2023 and 42% reported that buyer activity is approved, up from 17% for sellers and 14% for buyers in December 2023.
• Negative sentiment has dropped from 37% for sellers & buyers in December 2023 to 11% for sellers and 8% for buyers in January 2024.
• The month-over-month shift is likely due to anticipation of the spring market which seems to arrive earlier and earlier each year, especially when the winter has been mild.

 

3. The six-to-twelve-month outlook for Buyers and Sellers is clearly favorable.

• While the current sentiment is improved for buyer and seller activity, the six-to-twelve-month outlook for activity is the most favorable with 61% of brokers optimistic for improved seller activity this year and 63% of brokers optimistic that buyer activity will improve over the coming months.
• Only 13% of brokers felt buyer activity would be down over the coming year with 16% feeling that seller activity will be down.
• The outlook results are mostly level with December 2023 when they were 63% seller favorable and 54% buyer favorable.

There are myriad variables that feed into the sentiments report here. The shock of surging interest rates that clearly influenced sentiment in January 2023 has eased while the hope of lower rates in 2024 has set in. Signs of improvement in available inventories are bringing hope to buyers. And the economy continues to prove resilient in the face of concerns about macro factors like inflation, employment, and geo-politics.

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The 2024 Outlook by LandVest

The 2024 Outlook by LandVest is a 3-part series of analyses and insights on the investment land and luxury residential markets. The Outlook is informed by performance in our land, residential, and fiduciary consulting business units. Next in the series, Ruth Kennedy Sudduth, Vice Chair, shares what is on our clients' minds as we sail into the new year, and offers expert insights from some of our trusted advisors.